Reuters not too long ago ran fairly the splashy headline. “Türkiye’s gasoline shift threatens Russia and Iran’s final huge European market,” it learn. That feels like huge information. It was a letdown by the top of the lede:
Türkiye may meet greater than half of its gasoline wants by the top of 2028 by ramping up manufacturing and growing U.S. imports, in a shift that threatens to shrink the final main European marketplace for Russian and Iranian suppliers.
Why would Türkiye do such a factor? As a result of, in response to Reuters, Trump advised them to, and it will one way or the other “strengthen Türkiye’s vitality safety” by relying extra on LNG.
The US has been pressuring Ankara for years relationship again even earlier than the struggle in Ukraine to chop vitality ties with Russia. It hasn’t occurred but, and there’s no motive to imagine it’ll anytime quickly.
Türkiye has been growing LNG imports, in addition to bringing in oil and gasoline by way of pipelines from Azerbaijan and Iraq, and it has plans for extra as it really works to grow to be an vitality hub, however that can embody Russian vitality—which makes up greater than 40 p.c of Türkiye’s pure gasoline imports— for the foreseeable future.
Türkiye’s state vitality firm, BOTAS, did signal a 20-year U.S. LNG provide settlement with Mercuria in September, however it’s for a complete 70 billion cubic meters (bcm) over that interval, removed from the earth-shattering deal it’s being made out to be.
Maybe that is all of the American supremacists at so-called assume tanks just like the Atlantic Council needed as they’ve gone from issuing warnings to Türkiye on the problem (“Türkiye can grow to be an vitality hub—however not by going all-in on Russian gasoline”– Dec. 2022) to easily pretending their orders are being obeyed (“How vitality and commerce are redefining US–Türkiye regional cooperation” – Oct. 2025). In the meantime, the fact of the scenario has modified little.
A extra sober evaluation of the scenario is obtainable by InstituDE. Listed below are some key factors:
Home gasoline manufacturing at present covers solely 4% of consumption, necessitating continued reliance on imports.
Russian gasoline accounted for 39.5 p.c of Türkiye’s whole gasoline imports in 2022, 42.27 p.c in 2023, and 41.3 p.c in 2024.
Türkiye’s personal vitality demand continues to develop steadily, pushed by industrial growth, energy era, and projected will increase in car use.
Türkiye’s vitality hub mission stays extra of a political narrative than a business actuality. A extra sensible path lies in bettering home vitality resilience: diversifying provide sources, increasing LNG capability, and growing storage.
As the next charts present, an LNG deal for 4 bcm per yr isn’t going to alter a lot. Except Türkiye needs to derail its industrial progress and wider financial system at a time it will probably least afford it.
If one needs to get imaginative, it may assist soften the blow of a lack of the 14 p.c of imports that Türkiye at present receives from Iran. Ought to that go offline for some motive…can we consider one? So whereas a reduce off of Russian gasoline is a lifeless finish for now, maybe to Türkiye’s southeast is the course we must be wanting.
Trump-Erdogan Nothingburger?
Did anything come out of the Erdogan-Trump assembly on September 25?
Maybe the largest quick information was made by a reporter. Remarks by Hüseyin Günay, NTV’s Washington correspondent, had been captured by an Related Press digicam exterior the White Home and induced fairly the stir on-line in Türkiye.
Within the clip Gunay says Türkiye bought nothing from the assembly. He focuses, like a lot of the media, on the F-35s, saying that they had been “talked about however conditional” that Türkiye cease shopping for Russian gasoline and slashing commerce with China. (Türkiye was faraway from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in 2019 over its buy of a Russian air protection system.)
But the concentrate on the F-35 obscures give-and-take in different areas, in addition to ongoing US-Türkiye cooperation within the Caucasus, Iran, and with Israel.
Any widespread objectives apart, Washington has Erdogan over the barrel considerably because of the state of the Turkish financial system, which has been in disaster for years now. Right here’s political economist Umit Akcay with a comparability to Argentina, which is getting bailed out by the US:
Between 2021 and 2023, Ankara pursued a unorthodox financial experiment that reduce rates of interest regardless of hovering inflation and was backed by components of enterprise teams. The coverage purchased short-term progress and helped the federal government win elections. However like Argentina, Türkiye’s experiment collapsed beneath the load of inflation and depleted reserves. Since 2023, Ankara has returned to orthodoxy beneath Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek.
Each Argentina and Türkiye present how class coalitions can briefly broaden coverage house, however with out structural transformation these tactical positive factors evaporate. In each instances, dependency on unstable capital flows and the greenback system has compelled governments again into orthodoxy and deeper exterior subordination. Trying into Argentina’s mirror, Türkiye and the broader World South can see their very own reflection. Stability beneath dependent financialization isn’t everlasting. It’s at greatest the postponement of the following disaster, achieved at the price of deeper social hardship and renewed dependency.
Again to the Trump-Erdogan assembly. Different developments have taken form because the sit down that present Türkiye and the US (and Israel) largely on the identical web page within the Caucasus and probably in opposition to Iran. Each goal to get one thing out of this cooperation. Are they probably to achieve success? Will depend on who you ask. But it surely’s too quickly to say the assembly (allegedly paid for by Erdogan’s command that Turkish Airways purchase as much as 225 Boeing plane) was for naught.
On October 1, Türkiye introduced it was freezing the property of dozens of people and entities tied to Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear actions, shifting in lockstep with the renewed US-led West’s strain marketing campaign focusing on Tehran.
The transfer acquired sharp criticism in Iran. Iran’s Overseas Ministry has to date remained silent, and whereas lots of the listed entities will not be lively in Türkiye, some Iranian consultants warn the transfer is prone to harm belief and commerce between the 2 neighbors, significantly in vitality and finance.
On the identical day Türkiye introduced it was becoming a member of the sanctions marketing campaign in opposition to Tehran, Bloomberg broke the information that Ankara and Washington are nearing a settlement within the case in opposition to Turkish state lender Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS. Halk Financial institution was indicted in 2019 for allegedly collaborating in a multibillion-dollar scheme to evade sanctions on Iran, and it confronted US expenses of fraud, cash laundering and sanctions violations.
As Bloomberg experiences, “A decision to Halkbank’s practically decade-long saga would mark a big increase to US-Türkiye relations.” The financial institution is predicted to get off with a cost-of-doing-business superb, which might permit it to keep away from an extended authorized battle that would’ve meant heavy monetary injury, in addition to dropping entry to the US monetary system.
Bloomberg additionally experiences that Türkiye is in talks with the US over growing its huge uncommon earth reserves in central Anatolia. Türkiye and China signed a memorandum of understanding on the identical mission two years in the past, however talks hit a lifeless finish over Beijing’s insistence on refining in China, and a refusal on know-how switch. We’ll see if these with Washington go any additional. There are actually some objects within the information that would supply all the motivation vital.
And at a gathering of Trump and Arab and Muslim nation leaders on the sidelines of the UN there was Erdogan sitting right-hand man to Donald. It appeared becoming because the US was placing a bow on the genocide in Gaza.
Türkiye, with further effort to hide its actions, continued delivery Azerbaijani oil to Israel to gas its genocide of Palestinians proper up till the newest “ceasefire.”
Türkiye was additionally pressuring Hamas to just accept Trump’s deal that will see Hamas expelled from Gaza and the strip—and its offshore gasoline—exploited by worldwide traders. As we’ve argued right here at NC, regardless of mainstream and different protection of a possible battle between Higher Israel and Higher Türkiye, that day which will properly come is a good distance off. For now, the 2 stay on parallel tracks resulting in Tehran.
Turkish intelligence (Millî İstihbarat Teşkilatı or MIT), Mossad, and CIA are tight, and these “varieties of people that really feel most at dwelling on the darkish facet of a one-way mirror” are largely operating the present as of late. We bought one other reminder of MIT’s closeness to the Israeli and People in particulars of the Gaza ceasefire:
Gershon Baskin notes how Türkiye’s spy chief @ibrahimKALIN helped get Hamas over the end line. https://t.co/6inAFPZl3y pic.twitter.com/2ZesqQvDxl
— Amberin Zaman (@amberinzaman) October 10, 2025
Türkiye will proceed to play a central position within the Zionist plans for Gaza. As a current cooperation deal between Turkiye and UNRWA exhibits Türkiye is being prepped to just accept Palestinians from Gaza. Right here’s The Cradle:
Trump and Netanyahu are making ready for each final result. They appear to have chosen Turkiye to offer Hamas with an exit route – and Erdogan seems to have accepted this job as a part of his current White Home dealings.
Again in February 2025, Erdogan declared, “The proposals put ahead by the brand new American administration relating to Gaza with the strain of the Zionist foyer don’t have anything price contemplating or discussing from our perspective.”
That stance now appears to have modified after his Washington go to.
What modified it? In a transactional relationship, that a part of the story stays unclear.
What Does Washington Must Supply?
There are many prospects:
Sanctions aid. Maybe moreso than readmission to the F-35 program, Türkiye is keen to get out from beneath the Countering America’s Adversaries Via Sanctions Act (CAATSA) that had been utilized in 2020 following Ankara’s acquisition of the Russian-made S-400 missile protection system in 2019. The sanctions sluggish specific imports like semiconductors and microchips, hurting harm the nation’s protection business ambitions, which embody its personal air protection mission and domestically-produced fighter jets.
Ankara is searching for entry to the EU’s new $170 billion protection fund. Some EU officers are additionally speaking about how they want Türkiye’s assist to “rearm.”
Assist advance Turkish goals in Syria.
Spoils from the imagined conquest of Iran. CIA and MIT spooks have little doubt exchanged notes.
Türkiye reportedly needs a job in post-war Gaza. Was that promised? Wouldn’t it be well worth the paper it was written on?
Lastly, assuming Türkiye gained nothing ignores the massive reward Türkiye acquired previous to the assembly. Ankara stands to be among the many greater winners within the TRIPP scheme. (Be aware: it stands to win within the CIA-MIT imaginative and prescient, not essentially in actuality).
What’s that imaginative and prescient? Let’s have a look at what we all know and supply just a few educated guesses primarily based on previous conduct.
Türkiye and Iran battle for affect within the Caucasus, the Levant, and Central Asia. With TRIPP within the Caucasus and the autumn of Assad in Syria, Ankara sees itself as ascendant and goals to finish the trifecta by weakening Iran’s attain in Central Asia whereas increasing its personal.
TRIPP can play a minor position there, however Iran stays in the way in which of Turkish nationalist—and American supremacist— goals. From Amwaj:
Ankara needs Central Asian states to be much less depending on Russia and China and extra deeply tied to Türkiye and Azerbaijan. “They need them to be impartial actors insomuch because it strengthens their sovereignty and territorial integrity, in order that they will work extra successfully with the Turkish authorities in selling Türkiye’s pursuits in that area,” stated [Bruce Pannier, a Turan Research Center fellow and board member of the Washington-based Caspian Policy Center].
In distinction, Iran aligns with China and Russia in looking for to restrict western affect in Central Asia. Tehran sees NATO member Türkiye’s rising presence as a proxy for American energy, stoking fears of geopolitical encroachment. The Donald Trump administration’s quest to attract Central Asian nations into the Abraham Accords have exacerbated such anxieties.
And never simply in Iran. Right here’s a involved Russian perspective on the rising bond between nations within the Group of Turkic States (OTS).
For now Türkiye manages tensions and works with Iran on points like vitality and commerce routes. Each are struggling to preserve and improve their relevance to the quickly shifting Eurasian geopolitical developments as China, Russia and India play the precept roles with the West trying to crash the occasion and burn the joint to the bottom in the event that they don’t get to play emcee.
Each want to ascend to the identical degree of the massive Eurasian gamers. The Central Asian states, in the meantime, look to play balancing acts with all sides whereas remaining on good phrases with Iran to ensure they’ve entry to the Gulf and Indian Ocean.
However because the above-linked Russian piece on the OTS exhibits, there’s a concern that the final word goal of the group is to create an EU-like construction to extra efficiently stability the states in opposition to the foremost Eurasian gamers. Figures on the helm of the OTS are recognized for dreaming huge:
In 2021, Devlet Bahceli, offered the “Turkic World” map to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Here’s a nearer have a look at that map:
Why not slice off a bit extra of a balkanized Iran with a purpose to make sure the Turkic states are linked by land? This map might sound, how let’s say, far fetched? However it’s a very actual long-term aim amongst a strong group of Turkish expansionists.
Lighting the Fuse
If we view TRIPP and developments in Syria and Iraq as a part of a wider preparation for some type of battle with Iran, we see extra items sliding into place.
What do we’ve taking place on the Western facet of Iran?
In Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the federal government beneath Al Qaeda statesman Ahmad al-Sharaa not too long ago got here to a ceasefire, and the SDF now says integration into Al Qaeda state army is “imminent.” Israel and Syria are shifting towards a “safety settlement” that would that will convey Damascus into the Gulf-American alliance. Already Israel, most likely by way of an settlement with al-Sharaa, occupies components of southern Syria, however in any settlement it needs an air hall to the Syria-Iraq border.
This implies the US-Israel, which has backed the SDF, is reportedly advancing the so-called “David’s Hall”:
From the Zangezur to David’s Hall: The Silent Redrawing of World Commerce and the Highway to Warfare with Iran
Within the shifting chessboard of worldwide geopolitics, few developments are as consequential and as underreported because the emergence of two corridors: the Zangezur Hall and… pic.twitter.com/EY8JfSA9f8
— Ibrahim Majed (@ibrahimtmajed) July 25, 2025
Why is that this so vital? Strikes on Iran, as evidenced by the 12-Day Warfare, will not be going to work, and can solely do extra injury to Israel. The one possible means for a profitable regime collapse in Tehran can be “boots on the bottom” with Takfiri boots instead of any US-led coalition of the prepared.
Iran’s intelligence minister not too long ago revealed that in the course of the 12-Day Warfare, the US-Israel sought to destabilize the nation by inciting Daesh terrorists and different Takfiri teams in Syria and sending them towards Iran to hold out assassinations, sabotage, and different acts of terror. It didn’t work, and the following time, the component of shock shall be gone, however that’s no assure that it gained’t be tried once more—probably in bigger numbers. Iran shouldn’t be Syria, nonetheless, and most experiences are that the 12-Day Warfare solely elevated assist of the federal government. The US-Israel look to be betting that ongoing AI affect campaigns in Iran can change that.
The precise variety of takfiri fighters in and round Syria is unclear. Some estimates say that in Syria and Türkiye it might be within the thousands and thousands able to pour into Lebanon, Iraq, and/or Iran. Stories have not too long ago famous a buildup close to the Syria-Lebanon border. And let’s not overlook the Kurdish forces who’re probably being prepped to maneuver in opposition to Iran-backed teams in Iraq. Ankara, for its half, denied allegations of Mossad infiltration of Iran by way of its border (it made no point out of different fighters).
Ought to Iraq grow to be a battleground, it may very properly spill over into Iran. In response to experiences, Iran’s borders stretching from northern Iraq to the Caspian Sea are very porous,
Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to Chief of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, reacted to the current Gaza ceasefire settlement, suggesting that the developments may sign conflicts about to be ramped up elsewhere:
“The start of the ceasefire in Gaza could also be behind the scenes of the top of the ceasefire elsewhere,” he wrote on X on Thursday utilizing the hashtags #Iraq, #Yemen, and #Lebanon.
Add all of it up, and what do we’ve? One thing alongside the next strains seems like an honest wager:
To Sunni brothers and sisters
Quickly there shall be a “Sunni Shia” struggle
Syrian regime with Erdogan and Netanyahu backing will assault #Iraq, (and assist of others)
Bear in mind this isn’t a “Sunni Shia” struggle, it’s a Zionist fitna in opposition to all of us, however the resistance in Iraq is…
— Soureh 🇮🇷🇵🇸 (@Soureh_design2) July 10, 2025