In 1799, the German adventurer-scientist Alexander von Humboldt set out on what would show to be a five-year exploration of South America. Younger, independently rich and virtually absurdly energetic, Humboldt took an unlimited array of devices with him. A one-man harbinger of the age of massive information, he measured the circumferences of cacti, the air strain and floor temperature close to the summit of Mount Chimborazo, and even had time to right the positioning of Havana on the maps of the Spanish navy.
Humboldt was additionally deeply curious in regards to the wonders of the brand new world. He was an thrilling author and a delicate painter, and would have been puzzled on the suggestion that anybody ought to have to decide on between scientific information and private expertise.
I’ve been occupied with Humboldt as I attempted to make sense of YouGov’s current polling. Since 2011, YouGov have requested survey respondents to choose as much as three points they really feel are an important dealing with the UK. A number of weeks in the past, “Immigration and Asylum” grew to become the preferred selection.
That is barely unnerving, because the final time that was true was the summer season of 2016, simply earlier than the problem was eclipsed by 4 wonderful years of an important concern being “Britain leaving the EU”. We don’t essentially make our smartest choices when our brains are awash in anxiousness about immigration.
It is usually barely puzzling. Why is that this instantly now the problem of the day — somewhat than the economic system (gradual development, persistent inflation, excessive taxes) or well being (widespread power sickness, lengthy ready lists for the NHS)?
What would Humboldt make of all this? Does both the information or private expertise recommend that the UK’s most urgent drawback is one thing to do with immigrants?
Begin with private expertise. All of us have issues in our lives, and a few of these issues really feel just like the sort of issues our political leaders must be coping with. Possibly you’re in search of a job and may’t discover one. Possibly you’ve just lately been burgled or robbed. Possibly you may’t afford a good home, have been ready too lengthy for a medical appointment, or are aghast at how a lot tax you must pay.
Any of us could make such a listing — a kind of satanic inversion of the gratitude journal. However after I take a look at my very own checklist I’m fairly struck by how exhausting it’s to attach any of my precise, real-world, on a regular basis issues to immigrants usually or asylum seekers particularly.
One potential retort is that migrants really are lengthening NHS ready lists and elevating my tax invoice, I simply don’t realise it. Possibly. My impression is the NHS wants as many immigrants as it could actually rent, however nothing on my tax invoice tells me whether or not asylum seekers are answerable for any vital a part of it. Possibly they’re.
One other retort is that my experiences don’t characterize these of the bizarre UK resident. Truthful sufficient. There are almost 70 million of us and we’re all entitled to our personal complications. Nobody particular person’s expertise can come near reflecting everybody else’s.
Private expertise might not even mirror the reality of what’s proper in entrance of us. Simply ask MP Rupert Lowe, who just a few weeks in the past tweeted {a photograph} with the textual content “Dinghies coming into Nice Yarmouth, RIGHT NOW. Authorities alerted, and I’m urgently chasing. If these are unlawful migrants, I shall be utilizing each software at my disposal to make sure these people are deported.” Lowe additionally referred to as for “mass deportations. NOW.”
The boat was the truth is being rowed from Land’s Finish to John O’Groats by a crew elevating cash for a motor neurone illness charity. It’s simple to chuckle at Rupert Lowe, however we’re all vulnerable to seeing solely what we count on to see.
The economists Alberto Alesina, Armando Miano and Stefanie Stantcheva have carried out some fascinating surveys of public perceptions of a wide range of coverage points, and the outcomes on immigration are sobering. UK respondents dramatically overestimate what number of immigrants there are and what number of of them are Muslim. They overestimate what quantity of immigrants are from north Africa by an element of 10, and from the Center East by an element of two, and underestimate what number of are from North America. Respondents underestimate what number of are Christian, and in addition underestimate the schooling ranges and employment standing of immigrants relative to the UK-born inhabitants. These misperceptions aren’t distinctive to the UK — they’re widespread in wealthy nations.
We should always, like Humboldt, pay a bit extra consideration to the information. Oxford college’s Migration Observatory has curated a helpful assortment of proof about migration and the asylum system within the UK. We will see, for instance, that the price of the whole asylum system has soared in recent times, from lower than £500mn in 2013/14 to greater than £5bn in 2023/24. That’s nonetheless a small sum relative to the price of the NHS, which spends £5bn each 10 days or so. But it surely’s not trivial, and it has grown shortly. The difficulty has not merely been dreamt up by tabloid editors.
But simply because the system for processing asylum claims has grow to be overwhelmed doesn’t imply the UK itself has too. Overseas-born UK residents are more likely to be of working age than the UK-born — and thus much less of a fiscal burden. They are usually more healthy than the UK-born, and are more likely to have a college diploma. Seventy-five per cent of them have lived within the UK for greater than 5 years and 90 per cent converse good English. None of this means that immigration is more likely to usher in any kind of monetary, social or cultural calamity.
It isn’t exhausting to see how so many individuals got here to fret about immigration. We’re surrounded by apocalyptic social media messages and information headlines. However the exhausting information means that the most important of the UK’s very actual issues are not any extra being brought on by mass immigration than they’re by a gaggle of charity fundraisers rowing previous Nice Yarmouth.
Then once more, the exhausting information is rarely as eloquent as an excellent story. That’s the reason the voraciously curious Alexander von Humboldt units us such an excellent instance. He’d measure the cactus however he’d additionally sketch it; drag his barometer up a volcano, however remember to spin a yarn in regards to the epic climb.
Briefly: respect the information, but in addition look rigorously at what you see throughout you. Above all, suppose for your self.
Written for and first printed within the Monetary Instances on 18 Sep 2025.
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